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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."