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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.